{"id":1159,"date":"2025-09-11T14:59:33","date_gmt":"2025-09-11T18:59:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.whoi.edu\/site\/jenouvrier\/?page_id=1159"},"modified":"2025-09-18T11:59:28","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T15:59:28","slug":"eco-evolutionary-dynamics","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www2.whoi.edu\/site\/jenouvrier\/eco-evolutionary-dynamics\/","title":{"rendered":"Eco-evolutionary dynamics"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1>\n\t\tEco-evolutionary dynamics\n\t<\/h1>\n\t<h2>Can evolution save species from environmental deterioration?<\/h2>\n<p>As ecosystems change rapidly, many species face a stark question: can they adapt fast enough to persist? This idea-known as evolutionary rescue-asks whether natural selection can keep pace with environmental stress before populations decline beyond recovery.<\/p>\n<p>To answer this, we need models that go beyond population trends and capture the underlying biological processes: how traits evolve, how they influence survival and reproduction, and how those changes scale up over time.<\/p>\n<p>In a study published in <em>Methods in Ecology and Evolution<\/em> (Van de Walle et al. 2025), our team developed a modeling framework that brings together ideas from demography, quantitative genetics, and ecology. This model is designed to assess how trait evolution and demography \u00a0interact under environmental change-and whether those interactions are strong enough to prevent species extinction.<\/p>\n<p>How the Model Works<\/p>\n<p>At its core, the model simulates a population over time, tracking individual&#8217;s:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Life stage (e.g., juvenile, adult, breeder)<\/li>\n<li>Phenotype (observable traits like foraging behavior or breeding time)<\/li>\n<li>Breeding value (the heritable component of those traits)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Traits are modeled using standard quantitative genetics: each trait is influenced by both genes (breeding values) and environmental factors (non-heritable variation). The model captures how traits change within individuals over their lives (plasticity or development) and how they are passed to offspring through inheritance.<\/p>\n<p>The population evolves across two key processes:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Survival and transitions: individuals may grow older, change stages, or shift their traits over time.<\/li>\n<li>Reproduction and inheritance: individuals produce offspring whose traits reflect both genetic inheritance and environmental conditions.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>The model is based on a flexible block-matrix structure that allows us to turn different biological mechanisms on or off depending on the species or question. For example, we can simulate how a trait like body size affects survival in a warming environment.<\/p>\n\t<h2>Why it matters<\/h2>\n<p>This model helps answer critical conservation questions:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Are current rates of evolution fast enough to keep species viable?<\/li>\n<li>What life history traits or behaviors promote resilience?<\/li>\n<li>Can management strategies increase the chances of evolutionary rescue?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We applied this framework to albatrosses using real-world trait and demographic data (Jenouvrier et al; Rouby et al. in preparation). The results show that while some adaptation is possible, evolution alone may not be fast enough to offset rapid environmental change-highlighting the urgent need for both adaptation <em>and<\/em> mitigation.<\/p>\n<p>This model offers a powerful, modular, and computationally efficient tool for scientists and policymakers.<\/p>\n\t<p><strong>NSF- ORCC Collaborative Research<\/strong>: Understanding Organismal Behavioral Responses to Climate Change to Forecast Eco-evolutionary Dynamics of Albatrosses Populations<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Eco-evolutionary dynamics Can evolution save species from environmental deterioration? As ecosystems change rapidly, many species face a stark question: can they adapt fast enough to persist? This idea-known as evolutionary rescue-asks whether natural selection can keep pace with environmental stress before populations decline beyond recovery. To answer this, we need models that go beyond population&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.whoi.edu\/site\/jenouvrier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1159"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.whoi.edu\/site\/jenouvrier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.whoi.edu\/site\/jenouvrier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.whoi.edu\/site\/jenouvrier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.whoi.edu\/site\/jenouvrier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1159"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www2.whoi.edu\/site\/jenouvrier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1159\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1220,"href":"https:\/\/www2.whoi.edu\/site\/jenouvrier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1159\/revisions\/1220"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.whoi.edu\/site\/jenouvrier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}