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Eco-evolutionary dynamics

Can evolution save species from environmental deterioration?

As ecosystems change rapidly, many species face a stark question: can they adapt fast enough to persist? This idea—known as evolutionary rescue—asks whether natural selection can keep pace with environmental stress before populations decline beyond recovery.

To answer this, we need models that go beyond population trends and capture the underlying biological processes: how traits evolve, how they influence survival and reproduction, and how those changes scale up over time.

In a study published in Methods in Ecology and Evolution (Van de Walle et al. 2025), our team developed a modeling framework that brings together ideas from demography, quantitative genetics, and ecology. This model is designed to assess how trait evolution and demography  interact under environmental change—and whether those interactions are strong enough to prevent species extinction.

How the Model Works

At its core, the model simulates a population over time, tracking individual’s:

  • Life stage (e.g., juvenile, adult, breeder)
  • Phenotype (observable traits like foraging behavior or breeding time)
  • Breeding value (the heritable component of those traits)

Traits are modeled using standard quantitative genetics: each trait is influenced by both genes (breeding values) and environmental factors (non-heritable variation). The model captures how traits change within individuals over their lives (plasticity or development) and how they are passed to offspring through inheritance.

The population evolves across two key processes:

  1. Survival and transitions: individuals may grow older, change stages, or shift their traits over time.
  2. Reproduction and inheritance: individuals produce offspring whose traits reflect both genetic inheritance and environmental conditions.

The model is based on a flexible block-matrix structure that allows us to turn different biological mechanisms on or off depending on the species or question. For example, we can simulate how a trait like body size affects survival in a warming environment.

Why it matters

This model helps answer critical conservation questions:

  • Are current rates of evolution fast enough to keep species viable?
  • What life history traits or behaviors promote resilience?
  • Can management strategies increase the chances of evolutionary rescue?

We applied this framework to albatrosses using real-world trait and demographic data (Jenouvrier et al; Rouby et al. in preparation). The results show that while some adaptation is possible, evolution alone may not be fast enough to offset rapid environmental change—highlighting the urgent need for both adaptation and mitigation.

This model offers a powerful, modular, and computationally efficient tool for scientists and policymakers.

NSF- ORCC Collaborative Research: Understanding Organismal Behavioral Responses to Climate Change to Forecast Eco-evolutionary Dynamics of Albatrosses Populations